Group stage · August 13
We model how the Swiss stage ends: team ratings over a year of matches, recent form, results on patch 7.41, market odds and predictions from well-known analysts. The model fills the bracket for you — edit it freely and watch the expected points move.
Times are Moscow time
vs 
LGD Gaming Stream A Team Falcons — 78% to win the series Head to head: Team Falcons 21–7 on maps (28 over two years)
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form: Team Falcons 10 below, LGD Gaming 10 below 
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Nigma Galaxy Stream B Iron Wing — 63% to win the series Head to head: Iron Wing 13–8 on maps (21 over two years)
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form: Iron Wing 49 below, Nigma Galaxy 24 above its year 
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OG Stream C BoomBoys — 79% to win the series Head to head: BoomBoys 8–8 on maps (16 over two years)
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form: BoomBoys 6 above its year, OG 36 above its year 
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Team Resilience Stream D TEAM VISION — 80% to win the series No head-to-head maps in two years
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form: TEAM VISION 22 above its year, Team Resilience 55 above its year 
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Xtreme Gaming Stream A Team Spirit — 62% to win the series Head to head: Team Spirit 18–13 on maps (31 over two years)
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form: Team Spirit 26 below, Xtreme Gaming 61 below 
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Vici Gaming Stream B Team Liquid — 61% to win the series Head to head: Team Liquid 10–3 on maps (13 over two years)
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form: Team Liquid 22 below, Vici Gaming 21 above its year 
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GamerLegion Stream C Aurora Gaming — 66% to win the series Head to head: Aurora Gaming 2–0 on maps (2 over two years)
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form: Aurora Gaming level with its year, GamerLegion 14 below 
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HULIGANI Stream D Team Yandex — 85% to win the series Head to head: Team Yandex 1–1 on maps (2 over two years)
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form: Team Yandex 41 above its year, HULIGANI 6 below Valve marks the start times as approximate: a match begins once the previous one on the same stream is over.
Your bracket
Click a team to swap it with another one. Under every card is the probability of that exact slot for that team. The source switcher recalculates the model in place: as long as you have not edited the bracket by hand, it follows along.
Undefeated
One loss
Five out of the elimination round
Five losers of the round
One win
Winless
This is the model bracket with the highest expected points
Team odds
The share of simulations where the team finished the group stage exactly like that. Each row sums to one, each column to the size of its slot: one team undefeated, two with a single loss, five advancing.
TEAM VISION rating 1791 ± 31 5–1 Team Yandex rating 1761 ± 33 5–1 BoomBoys rating 1743 ± 22 3–3 Team Falcons rating 1749 ± 23 4–2 Team Spirit rating 1729 ± 23 4–2 Team Liquid rating 1721 ± 21 5–1 Iron Wing rating 1704 ± 21 3–3 Aurora Gaming rating 1700 ± 32 3–3 Vici Gaming rating 1669 ± 30 2–4 Xtreme Gaming rating 1673 ± 23 1–5 Nigma Galaxy rating 1642 ± 26 1–5 Team Resilience rating 1616 ± 45 5–1 LGD Gaming rating 1607 ± 37 2–4 GamerLegion rating 1606 ± 31 1–5 OG rating 1598 ± 27 2–4 HULIGANI rating 1557 ± 31 1–5 Opinions
Public predictions from players, casters and analysts. Dashed logos are slots the author never named: they are restored from what is left of the bracket or filled in by the model, otherwise an incomplete set cannot be compared by points with a full one.
Professional player
August 1
Streamer
August 5
battlepass.ru authorbattlepass.ru
August 6
Professional player
August 2
Professional player
August 4
Dota 2 writerHotspawn
August 1
Team Vision have been the most consistent team on this patch by a considerable margin. Six of GamerLegion seven qualifier games lasted under thirty minutes.
Streamer, analyst
July 31
BetBoom Team goes through undefeated. Falcons and PARIVISION advance at 4-1. paraphrased from the source
Professional player
August 1
Team Spirit analystTeam Spirit
August 1
Professional playerTwo-time International champion
August 1
Editor-in-chiefHotspawn
August 1
Streamer
August 3
PARIVISION goes through unbeaten. I do not believe Team Falcons and Xtreme Gaming make the playoffs. paraphrased from the source
No exact slot: Team Falcons, Xtreme Gaming — out in the group
Dota 2 writerHotspawn
July 31
In my opinion, the top three teams in terms of consistency and form are pretty clear — the Eastern European squads of TEAM VISION, Team Yandex, and BoomBoys should cruise through the competition. Team Falcons and Iron Wing haven't looked too good in recent months, but they have extremely experienced players who always turn up at the biggest event of the year. Finally, I have Vici Gaming to advance, because we'll need at least one Chinese representative to play at the Shanghai Oriental Sports Center. Teams that I believe will get the shorter end of the stick are Team Resilience, OG, and HULIGANI, with the latter going 0-4.
No exact slot: TEAM VISION, Team Yandex, BoomBoys — direct to playoffs; Team Resilience, OG — out in the group
Predictions are collected from public materials and from bracket screenshots filled in by the authors inside the Dota 2 client. The source is listed on every card. Where an author did not fill the whole bracket, the missing slots are dashed — first restored from what the bracket leaves, then filled in by the model.
Sources
Five sources of team strength plus a separate weight for analyst opinion. Their shares are tuned by the switcher next to the bracket, where the result is visible right away.
9,477
maps from August 5, 2024 to August 5, 2026. A game loses half its weight every 240 days, and every 40 for the form rating. Source — OpenDota.
125,386 $
turnover on the “The International 2026: Winner” market. Prices are converted into strength by regression, agreement with the rating is R² 0.77. The 8.3% spread is removed. Polymarket
+15
Elo added to map strength for Chinese teams: the event is in Shanghai — their own time zone, no flight across half the world and the arena behind them. Visitors get a travel penalty instead: the fewer days left to acclimatise, the larger it is, and it fades by the third day of the group stage. The weight is adjustable with the “Home and travel” slider.
Прибавка к силе за игру дома, в Elo на карту. Замер на 7831 карте 86 LAN-турниров домашнего преимущества не нашёл: 0 ± 13 Elo в среднем, у китайских команд на турнирах в Китае даже минус — но все девять таких турниров это 2015–2019 годы, а ближайший аналог, TI 2019 в Шанхае, дал −3 ± 34. Рынок при этом держит хозяев на 66 Elo выше нашего рейтинга, и стаканы у них самые плотные в поле. Мы ставим 15 — внутри доверительного интервала замера и в сторону рынка; ползунок «Дом и дорога» двигает величину от нуля до двойной.
March 24
A separate rating counts only matches played after the patch, while “hero meta” compares the team hero pool with how those heroes perform in pro play.
On 8–9 August typhoon Dolphin cancelled over 1,300 flights in Shanghai, cutting roughly 60% of Sunday's schedule at both airports. Part of the field ran into that window on its way in, part had already landed, and the hosts never had to fly. The penalty is not for the flight itself but for how many days on site are left before the first map: it peaks in round one and fades by the third day, just as acclimatisation does. The values are deliberately small: a measurement over 7,831 LAN maps found no average travel effect at all (0 ± 13 Elo), yet it cannot test the "landed a day before" case — teams normally arrive 3–7 days early, and history simply has no such sample. So the correction stays within the measurement's precision rather than beyond it.
Aurora Gaming still travelling Three cancelled flights in a row for Mira; the team was still in transit on the evening of 9 August source −18 Elo OG still travelling Stranded in Dubai, the Shanghai flight cancelled source −18 Elo Team Yandex still travelling Flight cancelled, the next one only on 10 August source −15 Elo TEAM VISION still travelling Flight cancelled alongside Yandex, arriving early did not work out source −15 Elo BoomBoys cutting it fine Flight diverted, landed in Wuhan instead of Shanghai source −10 Elo HULIGANI cutting it fine In China, but not in Shanghai — still a land trip ahead source −10 Elo Iron Wing arrived early Already in China — made it before the typhoon peaked source — Team Spirit arrived early Flew out on 8 August, ahead of the storm's peak source — Nigma Galaxy arrived early Flew around 7 August, before the typhoon source — Xtreme Gaming at home Playing at home, no flight involved — Vici Gaming at home Playing at home, no flight involved — Team Resilience at home Playing at home, no flight involved — Team Falcons unknown No travel reports found — Team Liquid unknown No travel reports found — GamerLegion unknown No travel reports found — LGD Gaming unknown Nothing on travel, but the mid was signed on 10 August — The penalty fades round by round: 100% → 80% → 50% → 30% → 10%. By the elimination round it is zero — a fourth day on site levels it out.
The rating stands on maps that have been played, and those maps never saw the change. The size of the correction is measured on this season's matches: with one player swapped, the first eight maps run 12.7 percentage points below what the old roster promised — about 90 Elo — and the gap closes by the tenth match. The group stage covers only half of that stretch, so the strength takes the weighted average rather than the peak. The "Roster and prep" slider turns these corrections off entirely.
LGD Gaming
A new mid in place of the banned one
Topson has taken the mid slot: he has no official maps since the summer of 2024 and does not appear in this season's stats at all. The previous mid played 158 maps for this roster — the very maps the team's rating stands on. The estimate's spread is widened: a player with no data is a player the model cannot rate.
Aurora Gaming
May play without Mira
The position four change is not confirmed. The correction is half of a confirmed replacement — as much as we believe the change itself — and mostly widens the spread rather than moving the estimate.
Team Yandex
A short run-up to Shanghai
The roster is unchanged, but the transfer window ate into the preparation. Strength stays as it is: a shortened bootcamp is not something we can measure, and we will not invent a penalty for it. We widen the spread instead — the result is less predictable both ways.
TEAM VISION
A short run-up to Shanghai
The same story as Yandex: the roster is unchanged, but the team had less time than usual to prepare for the LAN. Only the spread of the estimate moves.
Method
Across 9,477 maps of the season we solve a maximum likelihood problem: every team gets the rating that makes its actual results most probable. A game loses weight with age and depends on the tier of the event — qualifiers count half of what majors do. The schedule holds the estimate back: a team that barely met the field is trusted only as far as we have seen it against comparable opposition — its strength is pulled toward the strength of its own opponents.
Rosters beat name plates: a team that played the season under a different brand is merged with the current roster by matching players. Otherwise half the field would have a history one month long.
The rating gap gives the chance to win a map, and the best-of-three follows from it. A favourite is stronger over a series than over a single map: three maps smooth out the variance.
Each of the 20,000 runs plays out by Valve rules: five rounds, pairings inside equal-record groups by Buchholz, leaving the group at four wins or four losses, then the elimination round between the 3-2 and 2-3 fives. The share of runs is the probability of a slot.
Public predictions are merged into one matrix, balanced to the slot sizes and mixed into the model with an adjustable weight. Loose calls such as “they go out in the group” are spread across the fitting slots instead of being pinned to one cell.
There are over two hundred billion possible brackets, so the set is assembled greedily by probability and then improved by swapping teams while the expected points on the Valve table keep growing.
Correct slots out of sixteen → points. The playoff prediction opens after the group stage and is scored separately.
The forecast is for reference. The model knows played matches, market odds and published opinions, and it accounts for roster changes and shortened preparation through separate corrections — their size is measured on this season, yet each of them is still cruder than a played map. About visa trouble, health and team morale the model knows nothing. battlepass.ru is not affiliated with Valve Corporation.
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